The bottom fatality charge since 2019 is optimistic information, confirms extra progress could be achieved
For private‑auto insurers writing throughout New England, the U.S. Division of Transportation’s newest street‑security snapshot gives cautiously optimistic information after three years of pandemic‑period volatility. The Nationwide Freeway Site visitors Security Administration (NHTSA) on Monday launched its early estimate of 2024 visitors fatalities, projecting 39,345 deaths nationwide—a 3.8% enchancment from the 40,901 recorded in 2023 and the primary time the annual toll has dipped beneath 40,000 since 2020.
Key Factors from the announcement:
- 39,345 deaths projected for 2024, a 3.8% decline from 2023
- eleventh quarterly drop capped by This autumn -2024
- Car‑miles traveled up 1%, but fatality charge slipped to 1.20 per-100 million VMT
- 35 states + Puerto Rico logged fewer deaths; 14 states + D.C. noticed will increase
- Remaining 2023 knowledge: deaths down 4.3%, fatality charge down 6%
“It’s encouraging to see that visitors fatalities are persevering with to fall from their COVID pandemic highs,” stated NHTSA Chief Counsel Peter Simshauser. “Whole street fatalities, nonetheless, stay considerably greater than a decade in the past, and America’s visitors fatality charge stays excessive relative to many peer nations. To cut back fatalities additional, USDOT is working intently to associate with the regulation‑enforcement neighborhood to boost visitors enforcement on our roads, together with dashing, impairment, distraction, and lack of seatbelt use.”
Sustained downward momentum
The drop marks a continuation of quarterly enhancements that started in Q2 -2022; This autumn- 2024 is the eleventh consecutive quarter of yr‑over‑yr declines. Preliminary Federal Freeway Administration knowledge present that automobile‑miles traveled (VMT) grew by about 32.3 billion miles, or 1 %, in 2024, but the fatality charge nonetheless improved, sliding to 1.20 deaths per-100 million VMT, down from 1.26 in 2023 and the bottom stage since 2019. The seven‑yr pre‑pandemic common was 1.13.
Regional and state efficiency
Whereas NHTSA didn’t get away New England leads to its early estimates, 8 of the company’s 10 areas posted decrease fatality counts and charges in 2024. On the state stage, 35 states and Puerto Rico recorded declines, one state was unchanged, and 14 states plus the District of Columbia reported will increase versus 2023.
For carriers energetic in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont, the nationwide and regional patterns counsel that frequency strain on auto loss ratios could also be easing whilst publicity inches greater. A clearer view will emerge when NHTSA releases its 2024 Fatality Evaluation Reporting System (FARS) annual report file subsequent yr.
Remaining 2023 image
Alongside the 2024 projection, NHTSA revealed finalized crash statistics for 2023. The company confirmed that 40,901 folks died on U.S. roads in 2023, 1,820 fewer than in 2022—a 4.3‑% drop on the heels of an identical decline the prior yr. The fatality charge improved by 6 %, falling from 1.34 in 2022 to 1.26 in 2023 deaths per 100 million VMT.
Implications for New England insurers
Decrease fatality counts sometimes translate into softer declare severity on bodily‑damage and deadly‑accident coverages, though the lag between crash incidence and settlement can stretch years. The NHTSA knowledge additionally maintain underwriting significance for industrial‑auto writers, whose outcomes have lagged private auto attributable to inflation and litigation.
